Last year, I read Ray Kurzweil's The Singularity is Near, where Kurzweil optimistically predicts that we are on the exponential cusp of a technological explosion. Where humans transcend biology. He claims that around the 2045 time frame, we will be so advanced that strong AI will be common, nanotech will be pervasive, and that our existence will be totally changed from what we know it today.
Very interesting topic, with a lot of data to back it up.
Today, I listened to Kevin Kelly, a prolific writer and thinker give a talk on predicting the next 5,000 days of the web.
His discussion is about "the machine", the one machine. All machines now are just windows into the machine. He also calculated that the machine has roughly the power of one "HB" (Human Brain), but is doubling every two years in power. Kelly also makes a comparison with google and how, if we are transparent in our information sharing, google becomes the resource for information. As he says, "I forget my phone number, and so I google it". This changes the way the world works. He equates that to the alphabet, and how it changed the way the world worked.
Kelly comes up with a date of 2040 when the computing power of the machine will be greater than the computing power of humanity.
Interesting correlation to Kurzweil's date, which he acknowledges.
While I basically agree with Kurzweil and Kelly, we do need to consider the aspects of external forces, current computers that are not part of the collective, and basic human nature.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment